TORONTO, ONTARIO, January 5, 2023 3 The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a marked adjustment in 2022 compared to record levels in 2021. Existing affordability issues brought about by a lack of housing supply were exacerbated by sustained interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.

Following a very strong start to the year, home sales trended lower in the spring and summer of 2022, as aggressive Bank of Canada interest rate hikes further hampered housing affordability. With no relief from the Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) mortgage stress test or other mortgage lending guidelines including amortization periods, home selling prices adjusted downward to mitigate the impact of higher mortgage rates. However, home prices started levelling off in the late summer, suggesting the aggressive early market adjustment may be coming to an end, said new Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron. There were 75,140 sales reported through TRREB9s MLS® System in 2022 3 down 38.2 per cent compared to the 2021 record of 121,639. The number of new listings amounted to 152,873 3 down 8.2 per cent compared to 166,600 new listings in 2021. Seasonally adjusted monthly data for sales and price data show a marked flattening of the sales and price trends since the late summer.

While home sales and prices dominated the headlines in 2022, the supply of new listings continued to be an issue as well. The number of homes listed for sale in 2022 was down in comparison to 2021. This helps explain why selling prices have found some support in recent months. Lack of supply has also impacted the rental market. As renting has become more popular in this higher interest rate environment, tighter rental market conditions have translated into double-digit average rent increases,= said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The average selling price for 2022 was $1,189,850 3 up 8.6 per cent compared to $1,095,333 in 2021. This growth was based on a strong start to the year, in terms of year-over-year price growth. The pace of growth moderated from the spring of 2022 onwards.

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TORONTO, ONTARIO, December 6, 2022 – Homeownership market activity in November continued to be influenced by the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability. Sales were down markedly compared to the same period last year, following the trend that unfolded since the commencement of interest rate hikes in the spring. New listings were also down substantially from last year, and at a very low level historically. The fact that the supply of homes for sale has remained low, has supported average selling prices at the $1.08 to $1.09 million mark since August.
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 4,544 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2022 – down 49 per cent compared to November 2021, but remaining at a similar level to October especially after considering the recurring seasonal downward trend in the fall. New listings, at 8,880, were down on both a year-over-year basis and month-over-month basis.

“Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market. Over the medium- to long-term, the demand for ownership housing will pick up strongly. This is because a huge share of record immigration will be pointed at the GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) in the coming years, and all of these people will require a place to live, with the majority looking to buy. The long-term problem for policymakers will not be inflation and borrowing costs, but rather ensuring we have enough housing to accommodate population growth,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

“We have seen a lot of progress this year on the housing supply and related governance files such as the More Homes Built Faster Act. This is obviously good news. However, we need these new policies to turn into results over the next year. Otherwise, the current market lull will soon be behind us, population growth will be accelerating, and we will have done nothing to account for our growing housing need. The result would be enhanced unaffordability and reduced economic competitiveness,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was down by 5.5 per cent year-over-year in November 2022. The average selling price for all home types combined was down by 7.2 per cent year-over-year. Annual price declines continued to be greater for more expensive market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses.

“Selling prices declined from the early year peak as market conditions became more balanced and homebuyers have sought to mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs. With that being said, the marked downward price trend experienced in the spring has come to an end. Selling prices have flatlined alongside average monthly mortgage payments since the summer,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

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TORONTO, ONTARIO, November 3, 2022 – Despite the continued housing market transition to a higher borrowing cost environment, the average selling price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) found some support near $1.1 million since the late summer. GTA home sales continued to adjust to substantially higher interest rates in October 2022, both on an annual and monthly basis. However, new listings are also down year-over-year and month-over-month. The persistent lack of inventory helps explain why the downward trend in home prices experienced in the spring has flattened over the past three months.

GTA REALTORS® reported 4,961 sales through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) MLS® System in October 2022 – a similar number to September 2022 but down by 49.1 per cent compared to October 2021. Yearover-year sales declines were similar across major market segments. New listings were down by 11.6 per cent year-over-year and reached an October level not seen since 2010. New listings were down on an annual basis more so for mid-density and high-density home types, which helps to explain why prices have held up better in these categories compared to detached houses.

“With new listings at or near historic lows, a moderate uptick in demand from current levels would result in a noticeable tightening in the resale housing market in short order. Obviously, there is still a lot of short-term economic uncertainty. In the medium-to-long-term, however, the demand for housing will rebound. Public policy initiatives like the recently
introduced provincial More Homes Built Faster Act and strong mayor provisions will help ensure we see more homes being built to affordably meet the needs of new households,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down by 1.3 per cent year-over-year in October 2022. The average selling price for all home types combined, at $1,089,428, was down by 5.7 per cent compared to October
2021. The monthly trends for both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price have flattened in recent months following steeper declines in the spring and early summer.

“Home prices in the GTA have found support in recent months because price declines in the spring and summer mitigated the impact of higher borrowing costs on average monthly mortgage payments. The Bank of Canada’s most recent messaging suggests that they are reaching the end of their tightening cycle. Bond yields dipped as a result, suggesting that fixed mortgage rates may trend lower moving forward, which would help affordability,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

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The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued its adjustment to higher borrowing costs in September 2022. Sales for the month reached 5,038, but were down by 44.1 per cent compared to September 2021. New listings were also down on a year-over-year basis by 16.7 per cent to 11,237. This was the lowest number of new listings reported for the month of September since 2002. This is especially troublesome given that the stock of homes in the GTA increased markedly over the last 20 years.

“We must ensure that the temporary dip in housing demand is not allowed to mask the critical shortage of homes available for sale in the GTA. Candidates running in the upcoming Ontario municipal elections must ensure home buyers and renters have adequate housing options in the years to come. Municipal council decisions have a direct impact on housing affordability, in terms of the protracted development approval processes, high development fees and other related policies that preclude timely housing development” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

“Elected councils must also reconsider existing policies that preclude homeowners from listing their homes for sale, including significant added upfront costs like the land transfer tax. Potential new policies like mandatory home energy audits could also create unnecessary interference and delays in the home selling process and dissuade some homeowners from listing their homes for sale” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark was up on a year-over-year basis by 4.3 per cent. Over the same period of time, the average price dipped by 4.3 per cent to $1,086,762. The average price was up compared to August 2022.

“Hovering just below $1.1 million, the average selling price may have found some support during the last couple months of summer. With new listings down quite substantially year-over-year and well-below historic norms, some home buyers are quite possibly experiencing tighter market conditions in some GTA neighbourhoods. October generally represents the peak of the fall market, so it will be important to see where price trends head over the next month” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

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TORONTO, ONTARIO, September 2, 2022 3 There were 5,627 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board9s (TRREB) MLS® System in August 2022, representing a year-over-year dip of 34.2 per cent 3 a lesser annual rate of decline compared to the previous four months. The August sales result also represented a month-over-month increase compared to July.

Sales represented a higher share of new listings compared to the previous three months. If this trend continues, it could indicate some support for selling prices in the months ahead. On a year-over-year basis, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up by 8.9 per cent and the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 0.9 per cent to $1,079,500. The average selling price was also up slightly month-over-month, while the HPI Composite was lower compared to July. Monthly growth in the average price versus a dip in the HPI Composite suggests a greater share of more expensive home types sold in August.

“While higher borrowing costs have impacted home purchase decisions, existing homeowners nearing mortgage renewal are also facing higher costs. There is room for the federal government to provide for greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market. Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

“The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) should weigh in on whether the current stress test remains applicable. Is it reasonable to test home buyers at two percentage points above the current elevated rates, or should a more flexible test be applied that follows the interest rate cycle? In addition, OSFI should consider removing the stress test for existing mortgage holders who want to shop for the best possible rate at renewal rather than forcing them to stay with their existing lender to avoid the stress test. This is especially the case when no additional funds are being requested,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

“There are other issues beyond borrowing costs impacting housing affordability in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The ability to bring on more supply is the longer-term challenge. However, we are moving in the right direction on this front. The strong mayor proposal from the province coupled with the recent commitment from Toronto Mayor John Tory to expand ownership and rental housing options are examples of this. TRREB looks forward to hearing additional initiatives from candidates vying for office in the upcoming municipal elections,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

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There were 4,912 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® System in July 2022 – down by 47 per cent compared to July 2021. Following the regular seasonal trend, sales were also down compared to June. New listings also declined on a year-over-year basis in July, albeit down by a more moderate four per cent. The expectation is that the trend for new listings will continue to follow the trend for sales, as we move through the second half of 2022 and into 2023. Market conditions remained much more balanced in July 2022 compared to a year earlier. As buyers continued to benefit from more choice, the annual rate of price growth has moderated. The ML

S® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 12.9 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price was up by 1.2 per cent compared to July 2021 to $1,074,754. Less expensive home types, including condo apartments, experienced stronger rates of price growth as more buyers turned to these segments to help mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs.

“The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) population continues to grow and tight labour market conditions will drive this growth moving forward. Despite more balanced market conditions resulting from rapidly increasing mortgage rates, policymakers must continue to take action to boost housing supply to account for long-term population growth. TRREB has put realistic solutions on the table to address the existing housing affordability challenges. With savings high and the unemployment rate still low, home buyers will eventually account for higher borrowing costs. When they do, we want to have an adequate pipeline of supply in place or market conditions will tighten up again,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. TRREB is also calling on all levels of government to reassess and clarify policies related to mortgage lending and housing development.

“Many GTA households intend on purchasing a home in the future, but there is currently uncertainty about where the market is headed. Policymakers could help allay some of this uncertainty. As higher borrowing costs impact housing markets, TRREB maintains that the OSFI mortgage stress test should be reviewed in the current environment,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

“With significant increases to lending rates in a short period, there has been a shift in consumer sentiment, not market fundamentals. The federal government has a responsibility to not only maintain confidence in the financial system, but to instill confidence in homeowners that they will be able to stay in their homes despite rising mortgage costs. Longer mortgage amortization periods of up to 40 years on renewals and switches should be explored,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

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Higher borrowing costs continued to impact home sales in June 2022. Sales totalled 6,474 3 down by 41 per cent compared to last year9s strong result. The number of transactions was also down compared to May 2022, but this is often the case due to the seasonal nature of the market.

The average selling price, at $1,146,254, remained 5.3 per cent above the June 2021 level, but continued to trend lower on a monthly basis. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.9 per cent year-over-year, but also experienced a month-over-month dip compared to May. Annual price growth was driven more so by less expensive market segments, including townhouses and condominium apartments.

Home sales have been impacted by both the affordability challenge presented by mortgage rate hikes and the psychological effect wherein home buyers who can afford higher borrowing costs have put their decision on hold to see where home prices end up. Expect current market conditions to remain in place during the slower summer months. Once home prices stabilize, some buyers will re-enter the market despite higher borrowing costs,= said TRREB President Kevin Crigger. While the number of transactions was down year-over-year, the number of new listings was little changed over the same period. This has provided for more balance in the market, resulting in a more moderate annual pace of price growth.

Listings will be an important indicator to watch over the next few months. With the unemployment rate low, the majority of households aren9t in a position where they need to sell their home. If would-be sellers decide to take a wait-and-see attitude over the next few months, it9s possible that active listings could trend lower as well. This could cause market conditions to tighten somewhat, providing some support for home prices, said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Our region continues to grow because we attract people and businesses from all around the world. All of these people will require a place to live, whether they choose to buy or rent. Despite the shorter-term impact of higher borrowing costs, housing demand will remain strong over the long-term, as long as we can produce homes within which people can live. Policy makers at all levels need to make this their key goal, said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

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Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market conditions continued to evolve in response to higher borrowing costs. Similar to April results, May 2022 sales were down on a monthly and annual basis. Conversely, active listings at the end of May were up on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. More balanced market conditions have provided buyers with more negotiating power. As a result, while benchmark and average home prices were up substantially compared to last year, selling prices trended lower on a month-over-month basis.

”Bank of Canada rate hikes, including the 50-basis point hike on June 1, are impacting home buyers in the short term. There is now a psychological aspect where potential buyers are waiting for a bottom in price. This will likely continue through the summer. However, as home buyers adjust to higher borrowing costs, housing demand will be supported by extremely low unemployment, high job vacancies, rising incomes and record immigration,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

GTA REALTORS reported 7,283 sales through TRREB’s MLS System in May 2022 – down 38.8 per cent compared to May 2021 and down nine per cent compared to April 2022. The number of new May listings was similar to last year’s level and edged up on a month-over-month basis. With sales down and new listings trend flat to slightly up, the number of active listings was up on a year-over-year basis by 26 per cent.

Market conditions remained tight enough to support an overall average selling price of $1,212,806 for May 2022, representing an annual growth rate of 9.4 per cent. The MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was also up on a year-over-year basis by 23.9 per cent. On a month-over-month basis, both price metrics were lower, reflecting more balanced market conditions.

”Price trends observed over the past three months – both in terms of moderating annual growth rates and the recent month-over-month dips – are in line with TRREB’s forecast for 2022. After a strong start to the year, the current rate tightening cycle has changed market dynamics, with many potential home buyers putting their purchase on hold. This has led to more balance in the market, providing buyers with more negotiating power,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

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